Demographic growth and demand
explains a great deal of the success of Specialty Coffee growth over the last
decade. The Specialty Coffee
demographic represents those with some of the highest levels of
disposable income aging into even more disposable income and more discerning
tastes.
The Industry is tied directly to
the health of the U.S. Economy and consumer disposable income.
The CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started in December 2007,
will have lasted until the second half of 2009, making it the longest recession
since World War II they anticipate that real GDP will have dropped by 2.2
percent in calendar year 2009, a steep decline.
Severe economic downturns often sow the seeds of
robust recoveries. During a slump in economic activity, consumers defer
purchases, especially for housing and durable goods, and businesses postpone
capital spending and try to cut inventories. Once demand in the economy picks
up, the disparity between the desired and actual stocks of capital assets and
consumer durable goods widens quickly, and spending by consumers and businesses
can accelerate rapidly. Although CBO expects that the current recovery will be
spurred by that dynamic, in all likelihood, the recovery will also be dampened
by a number of factors. Those factors include the continuing fragility of some
financial markets and institutions; declining support from fiscal policy as the
effects of ARRA wane and tax rates increase because of the scheduled expiration
of key tax provisions; and slow wage and employment growth, as well as a large
excess of vacant houses.
Source:
Congressional Budget Office Economic Projections and revisions.
In CBO’s forecast,
real GDP increases by 2.1 percent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the
fourth quarter of 2010 and by 2.4 percent in 2011. Given CBO’s estimate of
growth in potential output, those GDP growth rates will narrow the difference
between actual output and potential output (the output gap) only slightly.
Growth of real GDP will accelerate after 2011, spurred by stronger business
investment and residential construction.
Source: Congressional Budget Office Economic
Projections and revisions.
The rebound in GDP and
will also affect real disposable income growth which is expected to grow by 1.2%
in 2010 after .50% growth in 2009. For 2012 through 2014, CBO projects that real
GDP will increase by an average of 4.4 percent per year, which would close the
output gap completely by the end of 2014. Even though economic activity began to
increase again during the second half of 2009, the unemployment rate continued
to rise, finishing the year at 10.0 percent. Hiring usually lags behind output
during the initial stages of a recovery because firms tend to increase output
first by boosting productivity and by raising the number of hours that existing
employees work; adding employees tends to occur later. CBO expects that the
unemployment rate will average slightly above 10 percent in the first half of
2010 and then turn downward in the second half of the year. As the economy
expands further, the rate of unemployment is projected to continue declining
until, in 2016, it reaches 5 percent, which is equal to CBO’s estimate of the
rate of unemployment consistent with the usual rate of job turnover in U.S.
labor markets. Reflecting the large amount of slack in the economy, inflation
will decrease further from its already low level in 2009, CBO forecasts. The
core price index for personal consumption expenditures (that is, the PCE price
index excluding the prices of food and energy) will rise by about 1 percent (on
a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) in 2010 and by 0.9 percent in 2011.
The overall PCE price index will rise by 1.4 percent in 2010 and 1.1 percent in
2011.
For
operators just getting started this may be
the best time within the business cycle to
plan and open your new facility
understanding that with interest rates still
at all time low levels and marginal
operators going out of business you will
have accounted for the marginal efficiencies
necessary to not only survive against the
competition but to thrive as we cycle once
again into economic expansion.
The Drive Thru
Concept ramps up
The laid-back, relaxing ambiance of the
coffeehouse helped convert more than half of
Americans into espresso drinkers during the
1990s. Time is everything now and as
comfortable as they may be, sit-down
espresso Coffee shops often aren't an option
for the on-the-go commuter or the harried
parent with a car full of kids.
In December of 2005 there
were 1,050 drive-thru locations
added to Starbucks stores
in North America. At the end of
Fiscal 2006 the Company Operated 1600,
that’s a jump of 152%. Why the huge push
into Drive thru in
the last two years?
McDonalds
tested and then completely switched to
premium coffee at the end of 2006 to compete
directly with Starbucks for the Specialty
Coffee consumer in a hurry and it has proved
to be successful for them in not only
capturing the customer but in getting
Starbucks attention.
Drive thru service at
Starbucks has been well received and
includes a wide range of customers who are
able to order from the same menu that in
store guests select from. Whether they are
mothers with sleeping infants in the car or
busy executives on the way to work – to
those that don’t want to walk through bad
weather to get their morning cup of coffee –
it seems the convenience of never getting
out of the car still
appeals to the masses.
Starting a small
business is always risky, and the chance of
success is slim. According to the U.S. Small
Business Administration, over 50% of small
businesses fail in the first year and 95%
fail within the first five years. Whether
you are starting a new specialty coffee cafe
or new double drive thru take away facility,
are looking to raise additional capital to
expand your currently profitable specialty
coffee business, or looking to evaluate and
value your business to sell, current
statistics prove that you will do much
better with a business plan than without.
According to Dunn and Bradstreet the
primary reasons for failure vary, but all of
the reasons come under the category of poor
planning. You are
a part of the second largest Industry in the
United States representing 4% of the U.S.
Gross National Product in the most
competitive Industry in the world. Your
management decisions will decide whether
your coffee business survives or thrives in
the face of increased competition. The most
important benefit of a business plan is that
it sets the stage for the future of your
business as you want it to be positioned in
the marketplace. A business plan will make
it easy for your banker to take action as
he/she gains insight into the details of
your business and the goals that you have
outlined. Potential investors can review
your plan and decide whether or not to make
an investment based upon the risk. You will
benefit most as you study and gain detailed
insight into your own operations. Updating
and constantly reviewing your plan will give
you more insight as both a manager and
decision maker.
TIME IS MONEY...We have estimated that it
takes an average of 100 hours to research,
and write a comprehensive business plan
within any Industry. Creating and compiling
the five year financial plan and forecasts
including 5 years of budgets, income
statements, balance sheets, cash flow
analysis, and key financial ratio analysis
can take more than 20 hours of work by you
or your accountant. Now consider sitting
down in front of your computer to edit and
fill in the details of an already written
and organized sample coffee cafe restaurant
business plan and outline. Whether you are
starting a full size cafe with an extensive
menu or just a themed coffee bar , are
looking for expansion capital to open your
second location, or want to sell your multi
unit chain, you will be able to edit this
plan into your own.
ALREADY
RESEARCHED AND
WRITTEN
The Industry Analysis included, was written
based upon current sources including the
National Coffee Association and the National
Restaurant Associations current Industry
Analysis and trends reports. Now use your
computer's word processor to turn this
sample plan into your own. Enter your food
and beverage revenue assumptions, your
operating expense assumptions, and your cash
flow assumptions into the QuickPlan® five
year forecasting template using your
computer's spreadsheet program. You will
immediately have five years projected month
to month operating budgets, income
statements, balance sheets, cash flow
analysis and key financial ratios. Once you
have finished editing, print your plan and
simply insert it into the three ring binder
included, indexing it according to the
pre-labeled inserts.
QuickPlan®
Express Coffee 2011
Business Plan Software includes both 335
page already indexed hardcopy, and software
including a complete 10 page Employee Manual
covering descriptions,
wage policy, performance appraisals, etc., a
23 page
Barista Operations
Manual covering complete
Daily Specialty Operation.
The Complete
plan consists of a hard copy and software
files of the following ;
|
Before
You Begin Checklist |
2 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Confidentiality Agreement |
1 page |
(Text
file) |
|
Table of
Contents |
6 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Executive Summary |
14 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Double
Drive Thru Express Coffee Specific
Business Description |
4 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Current
2010 Specialty Coffee Industry Analysis, Trends and
Outlook
2011 including current growth rates
1997-2009 by Region and State
just updated in in
September of
2010. |
40 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Double
Drive Thru Express Coffee Specific
Marketing Strategy |
5 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Double
Drive Thru Express Coffee Specific
Location/ Operations |
11 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Express
Coffee Specific Management |
3 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Express
Coffee Specific Financial Plan |
4 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Employee
Manual |
12 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Complete
Barista
Operations Manual |
23
pages |
(Text
file) |
|
2009
Food
Service
Industry
Forecast
/
Covering all market segments |
45 Pages |
(Text
file) |
|
2008
Food
Service
Industry
Forecast
/
Covering all market segments |
70 Pages |
(Text
file) |
|
2007
Food
Service
Industry
Forecast
/
Covering all market segments |
75 Pages |
(Text
file) |
|
2006
Food
Service
Industry
Forecast
/
Covering all market segments |
45 Pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Letter
of Intent to lease |
2 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
Menu |
3 pages |
(Text
file) |
|
HOW TO
RAISE MONEY/SBA CHAPTER |
23 pages |
Hard
Copy |
|
The
Small Business Administration’s 31
most asked questions |
9 pages. |
Hard
Copy |
|
SBA Auto Forms, fill them in on your
computer:
requires
Its FREE! |
|
(Text
file) |
|
Loan Application Standard |
6 pages |
Acrobat
File/Text |
|
Low Doc App. for up to $150,000 |
7 pages |
Acrobat
File/Text |
|
Short
Form Express up to $50,000 |
4 pages |
Acrobat
File/Text |
|
Statement of Qualifications |
2 pages |
Acrobat
File/Text |
|
Statement of
Personal History |
2 pages |
Acrobat
File/Text |
|
ADA Guide for Small Business |
15
pages |
Acrobat
File/Text |
|
Actual
Equipment Spreadsheet and Floor Plan
for Turnkey Site. |
2 page |
(Excel
File) |
|
Five
Year Forecasting Matrix
|
33 pages |
(Excel
File)
|
Five Year
Forecast Matrix (Spreadsheet File); type
in your assumptions and all of the
following statements are immediately
calculated....33 pages;
Month to
Month
Years
1-5 Operating Budgets
Years 1-5 Income
Statements
Years 1-5
Balance Sheets
Years 1-5 Cash
Flow Analysis
Years 1-5
Financial Ratio Analysis
Years 1-5
Summary Statements
Years 1-5 Break
Even Analysis
Auto Generated Use of
Proceeds
Equipment
Build Out
Smallwares
Site Prep and
Construction
Email me a Demo
The assumption
section asks for over 615 lines of
assumptions, (easy to use, assumptions that
don't apply to your operation just plug in a
0), including operating expense line items,
balance sheet, working capital, and
financing assumptions, the matrix even
includes two financial calculators built in
to give you copies of the amortization
schedules for your financing assumptions:
Hospitality
Resources on the Internet over 350 html
links.. (html
file) to all of the following categories on
the Internet, (already in html, just point
and click)...Associations, Beverage
Resources, Culinary, Free Newsletters,
Government, Management resources, POS
Vendors, Publications, Recipes, Recruiters,
Restaurants and Chains, Restaurant
Directories, Schools and Universities,
Suppliers, and Technology. Created by Chuck
Gohen of Restaurant Associates NorthWest of
Portland Oregon.
Starting with
the, "before you sit down checklist , you
will gather your information together to
edit on your word processor, (Macintosh,
Windows, DOS, etc...) that information which
does or does not apply to your specialty
coffee business....from your average ticket
and menu, to inventory,
taxes and staffing. Fill in the
details to make this your own comprehensive
business plan. Pull up the Five Year
Financial Forecaster Spreadsheet and insert
your average ticket price, number of seats,
seat turnover, beverage turns, cost of goods
sold, and operating expenses, and now study
your first year cash flow analysis to answer
the question of how much money you are going
to need. All five years of financial
statements are calculated and ready for
printing and insertion into your plan. Once
finished , print up your plan and simply
place it into the three ring binder indexing
it according to the pre-labeled index,
included.
System
Requirements
MicroSoft™ Word™
and Excel™ or MicroSoft™ Office™ are required. The
cost of this QuickPlan® Package, hard copy , cd-rom
and immediate email download is
$195.00
USD plus shipping and
handling, also available in download only format
for $145 USD.
Not available in any store, to order call
1-800-417-7017..
Order
Complete Package
Online $195
Order
Download Only
Online $145
Write My Coffee Plan
Order Now Call
1-800-417-7017
More Detailed Outline;
The
following is a complete detailed outline of
QuickPlan®
Coffee;
-
Title Page.
-
Confidentiality Agreement.
-
Table of Contents.
-
Executive Summary covering
Statement of Purpose, Business
Description, Industry Analysis,
Marketing Strategy, Location and
Operations, Management, and
Financial Plan including Use of
Proceeds,
Exit/Collateral/Payback
Strategy, and Conclusion.
-
Business Description including
History, Legal Form of the
Business, Current Situation and
Future goals.
-
Specialty Coffee Industry
Outlook including current
specialty Express Coffee
Industry Analysis, Trends,
Specialty Coffee Shop SIC
5812-28 (Growth by Region and
State 1997-2009
just
updated in
September
of 2010, Outlook
through 2011..customer
profile including sample
POP-FACTS demographic report ,
market demographics and customer
profile for a 1, 3 and 5 mile
radius. Targeted Customer
profile, local competition,
competitive summary, and
business risks.
-
Marketing Strategy including
building and signage, sales
strategy, customer service,
advertising and promotion, Media
Plan, Publicity Strategy, and
Community Relations.
-
Location and Operations covering
Property and Facility, Licenses
and Government Regulations,
Utilities Requirements,
Build-Out Estimates, Permits,
Build-out Equipment, Furniture,
Equipment, Menu,
Personnel/service, Procedures
and Controls, Inventory,
Ambiance and Entertainment.
-
Management covering key
principals, managers and
responsibilities.
-
Financial Plan summary of
provided five year pro forma
statements and assumptions,
Capital Requirements, Use of
Proceeds, Exit/Payback Strategy,
and conclusion.
-
Projected five year
month-to-month financial
statements including:
-
Email me a Demo
- Worst Case Scenario projected
five year month-to-month
financial statements:
Break
Even Analysis
Operating Budgets
Income
Statements
Balance
Sheets
Cash
Flow Analysis
&
Financial Ratio Analysis
Industry
Operations Comparison, your numbers
vs the Industry.
Auto Generated
Use of Proceeds
Operating Budgets
Income
Statements
Balance
Sheets
Cash
Flow Analysis
-
Realistic Case Scenario
projected five year
month-to-month financial
statements:
Break
Even Analysis
Operating Budgets
Income
Statements
Balance
Sheets
Cash
Flow Analysis
&
Financial Ratio Analysis
Industry
Operations Comparison, your numbers
vs the Industry.
Auto Generated
Use of Proceeds
Operating Budgets
Income
Statements
Balance
Sheets
Cash
Flow Analysis
-
Best Case Scenario projected
five year month-to-month
financial statements:
Break
Even Analysis
Operating Budgets
Income
Statements
Balance
Sheets
Cash
Flow Analysis
&
Financial Ratio Analysis
Industry
Operations Comparison, your numbers
vs the Industry.
Auto Generated
Use of Proceeds
Operating Budgets
Income
Statements
Balance
Sheets
Cash
Flow Analysis
You also
receive everything else that comes
with QuickPlan®:
 |
Employee Manual for you to
edit into your own.
|
|
|
|
|
Barrista
Operations Manual,
(23 pages)
for you to
edit into
your own
covering; |
1.
Approach
1.1
Product quality and consistency
1.2
Setting quality and consistency
1.2 Service quality and
consistency
2.
System
2.1 Station duties work
flow
2.2 Keeping up with
traffic
3. Station Responsibilities
and Duties
3.1 Bakery
3.2 Register
3.3 Drip
3.4 Iced
3.5 Bar
4.
Operational Management
4.1 Managing Funds
4.2 Ordering and Receiving
|
|
|
|
20010/11Food Service Industry
Forecasts with sources
including from the National
Restaurant Association. |
|
|
Hospitality Resources on the
Internet over 350 html
links..(html file) |
|
|
Small Business
Administrations 31 most
asked questions.
|
|
|
The Small Business
Administrations how to raise
money. |
|
|
ADA Guidelines for Small
Business |
|
|
Auto Forms and Info. |
|
|
Equipment spreadsheet. |
|
|
Letter of intent to lease.
|
Final
hard copy of your plan with
professionally printed indexes
covering supporting documents for
your plan:
Advertising Samples
Articles
of Incorporation
Awards
Bar
Build-out Estimates
Collateral Statement
Competition
Company
Financials
Demographics
Employee
Manual
Turn Key
Equipment Estimates
Floor
Plan
Health
Department
Industry
Analysis
Insurance
Internet
Inventory
Licenses
and Permits
Lease
Agreement
Loan
Application
Menu
Management Resumes
Operations Manual
Real-Estate
Recipes
Staff
Schedule
Trade
References
Vendors
Personal
Information
Order
Complete Package
Online $195
Order
Download Only
Online $145
Write My Express Coffee Plan
Order Now Call
1-800-417-7017
|
|
With
Millions raised since 1997, we would like to thank the
